The Five Categories
Desirability — Beliefs about what people want or value
Viability — Beliefs about resources and sustainability
Feasibility — Beliefs about technical or operational possibilities
Usability — Beliefs about how people will interact
Ethical — Beliefs about impacts and implications
The Four Quadrants
Plot each assumption on two axes: How important is this to success? and How much evidence do we have?
Low Evidence | High Evidence | |
|---|---|---|
High Importance | 🔴 Leap of Faith — Test these first | 🟢 Safe Assumptions — Document and monitor |
Low Importance | 🟡 Quick Checks — Test if easy | ⚪ Validated Low Priority — Move on |
30-Minute Mapping Session
List assumptions (10 min) — Ask: What must be true for this to succeed? Generate as many as you can without filtering.
Plot the important ones (10 min) — Select your top 5-7 assumptions. Place each on the matrix. Don't debate placement too long—gut reactions are fine.
Plan next steps (10 min) — For each "leap of faith" assumption, identify one way you might test it. Could be a conversation, observation, small experiment, or desk research.
Testing Methods by Effort
Quick (hours): Desk research, asking colleagues, reviewing past data
Medium (days): Informal conversations with visitors/stakeholders, reviewing comparable cases
Deeper (weeks): Structured interviews, observation protocols, pilot programs
Adapted from Teresa Torres' work on continuous discovery and assumption testing.
Connects to: Value of Information.